Economics and Astrology

NY-Times: Reading the Recession For Signs of the Future

The precipice is getting crowded as the financial crisis drags on, leaving even the optimistically inclined with no silver lining to cling to. At a gathering last month at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, economic analysts tested several projections on computer models of the regional economy [New York State]. The models spat back estimates of job losses in the metropolitan area during this recession that ranged from about 325,000 to nearly one million. (The latter result would be far worse than in any other recession in the last 30 years.)

With such a wide spread of possible outcomes, it is no wonder that John Kenneth Galbraith, the famed economist, once said that “the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

I thought that last quote was really funny. Anything to help from crying right?